International Conference on Mathematics in Biology
Annual Meeting of The Society for Mathematical Biology
August 3-5, 2000 in Salt Lake City, Utah
Plenary Talk
Bryan Grenfell
Zoology
University of Cambridge
This paper describes recent analyses of pattern and process in the spatio-temporal
dynamics of measles. Apart from its public health importance, measles has provided
fertile ground for testing ideas in population dynamics over the last 50 years.
I consider four basic questions
- The detection of non-stationarity in the spatio-temporal dynamics if measles epidemics,
using wavelets
- Analysis of the mechanisms behind these patterns using stochastic time series versions of the standard SEIR model
- The impact of mass vaccination on the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics
- The balance between noise and determinism in measles dynamics and how the
relative influence of these forces scales with population size.